Türkiye announces 2035 target: emissions capped at 643 million tonnes

What happened

On 24 September 2025, at the UN Climate Summit in New York, President Erdoğan announced Türkiye's Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0). Under the target, Türkiye will limit its greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 to 643 million tonnes CO₂e, a reduction of 466 million tonnes CO₂e against the reference scenario. The document was submitted to the Secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in November 2025; the Climate Change Presidency announced the submission on 10 November 2025.

According to the NDC text:

• The target is economy-wide, covers all sectors and all greenhouse gases, and is a single-year target (2035).
• In the reference (BAU) scenario, 2035 emissions are projected at 1,109 million tonnes CO₂e; the reduction is calculated against this level.
• The target is defined as an interim step on the path to net zero by 2053; the document cites the establishment of a national Emissions Trading System as one of the core elements of the framework created by the Climate Law.
• Türkiye reserves the right to use the voluntary cooperation mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

The 2030 target in the previous NDC was 695 million tonnes CO₂e.

Who is affected

The national target does not directly allocate a burden to companies, but the ETS cap, allocation plans and sectoral policies are expected to be shaped by it. Policies defined under seven pillars (energy, industry, buildings, transport, waste, agriculture and forestry) will affect the investment and cost plans of companies operating in these sectors. The use of Article 6 also raises questions of authorisation and corresponding adjustments for international sales of credits from carbon projects in Türkiye.

What companies should do

• Compare your own reduction targets with the national 2035 and 2053 pathway; a company target that falls short of the national target may face regulatory pressure later.
• For installations that may come under the ETS, build a carbon cost scenario extending to 2035.
• Prepare a roadmap that ranks your abatement measures by cost and potential.

Alalëa supports aligning company targets with national policy and building decarbonization roadmaps: decarbonization strategy.