How to Build a Decarbonization Roadmap

Announcing a net-zero commitment is easy; tying it to the capital budget, the production plan and purchasing decisions is hard. A decarbonization roadmap is the document that makes that connection: it shows how the company will get from today's emissions to its target, with which measures, in what order, under whose responsibility and with what investment.

This guide explains step by step how a roadmap is prepared, summarizes the abatement levers for the main sectors of Turkish industry and sets out the points that need care around residual emissions and carbon removals. For how to rank measures by cost and potential, see the abatement measures and MACC guide.

The framework: national target, company target, science

Türkiye ratified the Paris Agreement in 2021 and announced a 2053 net-zero emissions target. The 2053 Long-Term Climate Strategy published by the Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change contains 89 strategies in total across 18 sectors and 4 cross-cutting areas. In its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), Türkiye aims to reduce emissions by 466 Mt CO₂e against its Reference Scenario and to cap its emissions at 643 Mt CO₂e by 2035; according to the reference indicator in the document, Türkiye's 2018 emissions (including land use) were 458.8 Mt CO₂e. In the terminology of the GHG Protocol Mitigation Goal Standard, targets defined against a projected scenario like this fall into the "baseline scenario goal" category, whereas company targets are usually absolute targets defined against a historical base year.

At company level, the most common reference point is the SBTi. The Net-Zero Standard V2.0, published in June 2026 and effective from 1 February 2027, introduces rules that directly shape a roadmap:

• A transition plan showing how the target will be met is mandatory. The plan must cover the actions planned for the near-term targets, indicative actions for the following 5 years and, for Category A companies, a long-term roadmap to net zero; it must disclose assumptions and external dependencies, be approved by the company's highest governance body and be reviewed at least every five years.
• Near-term targets cover a 5-year period; long-term targets are set for 2050 at the latest.
• Target ambition is set against the physical inventory, including the location-based method for scope 2.
• In implementation, activity-level action comes first: a company cannot move on to more indirect actions without showing that direct reductions in its own operations and value chain have been assessed and implemented where feasible.

For details of the standard, see the SBTi guide and what changed in V2.

Globally, the most widely cited framework for what works is the IEA's Net Zero Roadmap. According to its 2023 update, renewables, efficiency, methane abatement and electrification, all using technologies available today, deliver more than 80 percent of the emission reductions needed by 2030. The same report highlights tripling global installed renewable capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030, doubling the annual rate of energy intensity improvement and cutting methane emissions from the energy sector by 75 percent; electric vehicles and heat pumps deliver around one fifth of the reductions to 2030. The implication for a company roadmap is clear: the first decade rests mainly on solutions that are commercially available today.

Step 1: A verification-ready inventory

A roadmap can be no better than the inventory behind it. Scope 1, 2 and 3 need to be broken down by source, by site and, where possible, by product, because measures are designed at source level. "Scope 1: 80,000 tonnes" is not enough to build a roadmap on; "two steam boilers at Site B: 31,000 tonnes from natural gas" is. For building the inventory, see the GHG inventory guide and the scope 3 categories guide.

The output of this stage is a hotspot analysis: the small number of sources that make up most of total emissions. In industry these are usually process heat, specific process emissions, purchased electricity and a few key raw materials.

Step 2: Reference scenario and target

The second step is a reference scenario showing where emissions would go if no additional measures were taken: production growth, changes in product mix, planned capacity investments and the expected change in the carbon intensity of grid electricity. Türkiye's Long-Term Climate Strategy projects that the industrial sector's electricity consumption will grow by an average of 3.7 percent a year to 2035; national assumptions of this kind are among the inputs to the reference scenario.

Then the target is set. Under SBTi V2.0, scope 1 and scope 2 targets cover 100 percent of emissions. The near-term scope 3 target of Category A companies must cover every category within Categories 1-14 that on its own makes up 5 percent or more of scope 3. For scope 2 there are two options: a target based on increasing the share of low-carbon electricity, or an absolute emission reduction target. Category A companies whose electricity consumption is expected to grow by more than 20 percent a year on average over the target cycle must set a scope 2 emissions target. For the target-setting process, see SBTi target setting step by step.

The difference between the target and the reference scenario is the abatement gap the roadmap has to close.

Step 3: Identifying and ranking measures

The measures that will close the gap are listed technically, starting from the hotspot analysis. For each measure, the abatement potential (tCO₂e/year), relative cost, investment lead time, technical maturity and dependencies (grid capacity, suppliers, regulation) are determined. The most common tool for ranking measures is the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC); how to build one is explained in the MACC guide.

It helps to think of measures in terms of five levers:

1. Energy efficiency

This is the fastest and often the cheapest lever. Typical items are waste heat recovery, condensate return and insulation in steam systems, fixing compressed air leaks, high-efficiency motors and drives, and better process control. The Long-Term Climate Strategy aims to cut energy intensity in industry by at least 10 percent by 2053 compared with 2022, and lists efficiency investments that deliver at least 15 percent energy savings at existing manufacturing plants consuming at least 500 TOE (tonnes of oil equivalent) a year among its priority investment areas.

2. Electrification

Meeting low- and medium-temperature process heat with electricity (heat pumps, electric boilers, induction) moves fuel-related scope 1 into scope 2; emissions fall as the grid and the supply get cleaner. The Strategy expects the shift to electrification in industrial systems that burn fuel directly to accelerate especially after 2040. For a company, the critical point is to plan electrification together with renewable electricity procurement; otherwise the reduction may stay on paper.

3. Renewable electricity procurement

There are three main routes in Türkiye:

• On-site or consumption-linked generation (unlicensed solar): The Regulation on Unlicensed Electricity Generation in the Electricity Market of 12 May 2019 governs generation facilities linked to a consumption facility. The Long-Term Climate Strategy states that green energy investments for self-consumption under unlicensed generation are supported in the investment incentive system and that this support is planned to continue. In the SBTi V2.0 implementation hierarchy, consumption from behind-the-meter generation also counts as activity-level action.
• YEK-G certificates: The Renewable Energy Resource Guarantee System (YEK-G), launched by EPİAŞ (Türkiye's energy exchange operator) on 1 June 2021, certifies every 1 MWh of renewable energy fed into the grid by the licensed generation facilities registered in the system. The system was developed within the framework of the EU guarantee of origin (GO) system and the rules of the AIB's European Energy Certificate System; participation is voluntary, and certificates can be traded separately from the energy on the Organised YEK-G Market.
• Direct contracts: Certified green tariffs or power purchase agreements with a renewable generator or supplier.

For these instruments to count in market-based scope 2, they must meet the quality criteria of the GHG Protocol Scope 2 Guidance: they must convey the emission rate attribute, be the only instrument carrying that attribute, be tracked and redeemed on behalf of the reporter, be issued and redeemed as close as possible to the consumption period, and be sourced from the same market as the consumption. SBTi V2.0 adds further criteria for market instruments used in target implementation: the instruments must come from plants commissioned or repowered within the 15 years preceding the consumption period, be matched to consumption within 12 months and be sourced from the activity pool defined by deliverability zone. There is a legacy provision for existing long-term contracts. In addition, Category A companies must calculate and report the hourly matching percentage for activity pools with annual consumption of 10 GWh or more. We discuss what these rules mean for YEK-G users in our post on the Scope 2 revision and in how to use renewable energy certificates.

4. Fuel and feedstock switching

Switching from coal to natural gas cuts emissions in the short term but is an intermediate step on a net-zero pathway. Biomass, alternative fuels, green hydrogen and low-carbon feedstocks (substitute materials instead of clinker, scrap, recycled fibre) are long-term levers. For technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture, the roadmap should put pilot and feasibility steps on the timeline; booking their large-scale contribution in the early years is a common mistake.

5. Value chain and supplier engagement

In many industrial companies, scope 3 Category 1 is the largest item and lies outside direct control. The example actions in the GHG Protocol Scope 3 Standard include replacing high-emission raw materials with lower-emission ones, applying low-carbon procurement policies and encouraging tier 1 suppliers to engage their own suppliers. In practice, supplier engagement moves in this order: requesting primary data from the largest suppliers, adding product-level emission data to purchasing criteria, supporting suppliers with target setting and renewable electricity use, and long-term contracts for low-carbon raw materials. SBTi V2.0 recommends that Category A companies support the transition plans of Category B companies in their value chain through financial collaboration, capacity building or technology transfer.

Sector levers in Turkish industry

The summary below draws on the sector strategies of the Long-Term Climate Strategy and on our field experience. We have linked to the relevant guides for sector boundary decisions.

In some sectors the regulatory framework is already concrete. According to the Long-Term Climate Strategy, in public works and in tenders for the purchase of goods containing cement, the clinker ratio in cement has been capped at a maximum of 0.80 between 1 January 2025 and 31 December 2029, and at a maximum of 0.75 from 1 January 2030. For cement, the Strategy foresees first raising the shares of alternative raw materials and fuels, then carbon capture and hydrogen pilots, with carbon capture in cement becoming widespread after the 2040s. In iron and steel, the aim is to support the technical and financial infrastructure for DRI pilots. In transport, the core strategy is to rebalance the road-dominated structure in favour of rail and sea.

In food and agriculture-heavy value chains, FLAG (forest, land and agriculture) emissions are a separate topic. The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard notes that the SBTi requires a FLAG target from companies whose FLAG emissions are 20 percent or more of their total scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. For details, see our FLAG emissions service. The SBTi also has sector-specific resources for sectors such as cement, steel, chemicals, and apparel and footwear; in these sectors the roadmap should be built consistently with those resources.

Step 4: Investment plan

Once the measures are placed on a timeline, they become an investment plan. A good plan includes:

• For each measure, the capital expenditure and operating cost impact, payback period and abatement potential
• Where the investment sits in the company's capital budgeting cycle and how it aligns with the equipment replacement schedule
• Incentives, grants and green finance options
• Including a carbon price (TR ETS, the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism or an internal carbon price) in project appraisal

The equipment replacement cycle is a critical concept. If a boiler or furnace is an investment that will run for decades, choosing the wrong technology today can lock in emissions until the net-zero year. The roadmap should flag these "lock-in" points in advance. For how to link an internal carbon price to investment decisions, see our internal carbon pricing service.

Step 5: Governance

SBTi V2.0 requires the transition plan to be formally approved by the company's highest governance body (for example, the board of directors) and to be aligned with or integrated into corporate strategy. Category A companies must publish a disclosure of their transition plan within 15 months of target validation. The standard also recommends defining clear roles and responsibilities in senior management for overseeing and implementing the targets, and keeping public policy advocacy consistent with climate targets.

A structure that works in practice: an accountable person at board level, climate targets linked to senior executives' performance indicators, a project owner for each measure, a quarterly progress meeting and a roadmap updated alongside the annual inventory.

Step 6: Monitoring and KPIs

SBTi V2.0 foresees an assessment of progress at the end of the target cycle and, for Category A companies, independent assurance of the data supporting progress. The data sources for the KPIs should therefore sit on the same audit trail as the inventory.

Residual emissions and carbon removals: proceed with care

The most common weakness in roadmaps is leaning on carbon credits or future removals to make the numbers add up. The frameworks are clear on this:

• Reduction comes first. Under SBTi V2.0, reaching net zero requires reducing scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions to zero or to a residual level consistent with appropriate net-zero pathways.
• Residual emissions are neutralized only with removals. Emissions remaining in and after the net-zero year are neutralized with verified removal activities. Residual emissions of long-lived gases must be matched with long-lived removals. The company bears direct responsibility for neutralizing scope 1 residual emissions.
• Responsibility after 2035. V2.0 foresees that, from 2035, Category A companies support carbon removals equal to at least 1 percent of their ongoing scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions, rising linearly to 100 percent by the net-zero year. The standard states that this provision will be reviewed in the next major revision.
• Separate reporting in the inventory. The GHG Protocol requires credits acquired from outside the inventory to be reported separately from the inventory. For companies that want to report removals in their inventory, the Land Sector and Removals Standard (version 1.1, effective from 1 January 2027) sets requirements for traceability, adequate data quality, allocation that avoids double counting, and permanence: reported removals must be monitored and losses of stored carbon must be accounted for.

Our recommendation: show residual emissions as a separate line in the roadmap and estimate the removal need by tonnage and year, but do not make the success of the reduction plan depend on removals. For carbon markets and removals, see our carbon markets service.

Common mistakes

• Building the roadmap on totals alone, before the inventory is complete
• Treating scope 3 as nothing more than a "supplier survey"
• Counting renewable certificate purchases as the only lever, without seeing that their role in an SBTi target is limited because location-based emissions do not change
• Booking the contribution of technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture in the early years
• Ignoring the equipment replacement schedule
• Building the investment plan without the finance function
• Publishing the document without defining governance

Building your roadmap with Alalëa

At Alalëa we build the roadmap starting from inventory data, drawing up the list of measures through site visits and with engineering teams, ranking the measures with a MACC and linking them to an investment and governance plan consistent with SBTi targets. If you want to see how much is achievable before you set your target, a roadmap study is the natural first step in target setting. For details, see our decarbonization strategy service or get in touch with us.